Serie A selling its 'soul' to private equity: The €4 billion valuation and the trap of desperation

When I heard that Carlyle, Bain, and Oaktree were ready to submit bids for Serie A's international media unit, I couldn't help but recall the night of Kazan 2026. The night when Germany – the reigning world champions – were beaten 2-0 by South Korea in complete helplessness. They had 74% possession, 28-7 shots, but conceded both goals in the 90+3 and 90+6 minutes. German football philosophy died in Guardiola's swamp, and I wrote that while the world was still busy praising their dominance. Now, Serie A is facing its own Kazan. Not on the pitch, but in the boardroom. Four private equity funds – Carlyle, Bain, Oaktree, and Nextalia – are reportedly set to submit binding bids before September 4 to buy a 10-20% stake in Serie A's international media, betting, and sponsorship venture, at a valuation of €3-4 billion. That figure represents 15-20 times the annual EBITDA of around €200 million. Sounds impressive, but look at the revenue: only about €250 million per year – a fraction of the Premier League and LaLiga. Serie A is trying to sell its 'future' at an inflated price, while that very future is increasingly depreciating. This is not a smart investment deal. This is a desperate rescue disguised in flashy financial language. Look at the bigger picture. Serie A is a league with some of Europe's most tradition-rich clubs – Inter Milan, AC Milan, Juventus. But their international media value is only a fraction of the Premier League's. Why? Because of the congested fixture list, declining competitive quality, and Italian clubs no longer being the dominant force in the Champions League like they were in the 1990s. And now, instead of addressing those root problems, they choose to sell stakes to private equity funds – entities that care nothing about football, only about profits. I've witnessed this model in Spain with the CVC deal, in France with Ligue 1. What happened? LaLiga still lags behind the Premier League. Ligue 1 is still mired in financial crisis. Selling stakes to private equity is not a solution – it's just a temporary painkiller for a chronic disease. But perhaps I'm being too harsh. Perhaps this is an opportunity for Serie A to learn from its own mistakes. In 2026, a similar deal collapsed because it failed to secure 14/20 votes from clubs. This time, the narrower scope – selling only the international unit, not the entire league – might reduce opposition. And with 4 funds interested, competitive pressure could drive the price higher. However, there's an issue no one mentions: Oaktree's conflict of interest. This fund owns Inter Milan – one of Serie A's biggest clubs – while simultaneously wanting to buy a stake in the league's own media venture. This creates a governance dilemma: Oaktree would be both a club owner and an investor in the league's governing body. Will they make decisions that benefit Inter at the expense of other clubs? This is the question that Serie A's 20 clubs need to ask before voting. I'm not opposed to Serie A seeking new capital. I'm opposed to the way they're doing it – hastily, without transparency, and risking losing strategic control of the league to unfeeling investment funds. As I wrote about the Nguyen Van Quyet case in 2026: 'I'm not rebelling because of Nguyen Van Quyet, I'm rebelling because of the way we look at contracts.' Now I say: I'm not opposed to selling stakes, I'm opposed to the way we perceive the value of a league. Serie A's value doesn't lie in the €3-4 billion figure. It lies in the nights of the Derby della Madonnina, in Buffon's miraculous saves, in the iconic goals of Totti and Del Piero. If investment funds don't understand that, they'll only ruin what they're trying to buy. Look at the reality: Serie A's international media revenue is declining. Broadcasters are no longer as enthusiastic about this league as before. If this trend continues, the €3-4 billion valuation will become a burden, not an opportunity. The funds may have to write down their investment, which will make them even more disillusioned with Italian football. I learned a lesson from the night of Kazan: never worship what is dying. Serie A is dying, not because of a lack of money, but because of a lack of vision. Selling stakes to private equity is not vision – it's just a way to delay the inevitable death. But perhaps I'm wrong. Perhaps these funds will bring a fresh breeze, a smarter growth strategy, a more professional approach. Perhaps they'll help Serie A tap into the North American, Asian, and Middle Eastern markets – markets the Premier League has long dominated. Perhaps they'll help Italian clubs invest in infrastructure and youth development, creating a new generation of players who can compete in the Champions League. But I don't believe in those things. I've lived long enough to know that investment funds don't care about football's future – they only care about profits in the next 5-7 years, before they sell their investment to another fund. And when they leave, Serie A will face the same problems again, but with a larger debt and a portion of control already lost. Philosophy didn't die in Kazan, it died long ago – we just didn't see it. Same for Serie A. This league died long ago, not because of a lack of talent or money, but because of a lack of a long-term strategy strong enough to compete with the Premier League. Selling stakes to private equity is just a way to delay the admission of failure. I will closely follow the developments of this deal. If it succeeds, I'll write an analysis of how Serie A transformed itself. If it fails, I'll write about a league sinking deeper into crisis. But whatever the outcome, I'll still remember: football is never what you think it is. It's always more complex, more multi-dimensional, and always has hidden layers that only those who truly observe can see. Serie A is at a historic crossroads. Let's see which path they choose.